This season, I’ve been running a series of articles here at the website for the CardRunners Experts League looking at closers and how we can best predict the number of games a closer will save in a given year.  Thus far, I’ve looked at a closer’s preseason hold on the job, his skills, and his closing experience, but aside from picking a closer with a firm hold on the job before the season starts, there is little difference between the top tier closers and the bottom tier ones in terms of pure saves.  Today, I wanted to combine all of our factors to see just how well we can predict saves and then look at which closers have over/underperformed expectations in 2011 and which CardRunners teams have gained/lost the most.
 

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Yesterday, Chris Liss penned a post at RotoWire's RotoSynthesis blog that mentioned my luck, randomness, and Dan Haren article.  This stemmed a little debate in the comments section, which I wanted to respond to here since I'm incapable of writing up a succinct response that's appropriate for a comments section.

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There's an interesting conversation going on in the comments section of my post from Wednesday (far more interesting than the post itself), and my would-be-responses were very long, so I turned them into articles over at THT:

Do we use luck and randomness as a crutch?

How much do counts affect BABIP?

I thought I'd point them out for those interested.

The on-going debate between Chris Liss, Eric Kesselman, and Bill Phipps is a terrific one that makes me very happy I was invited to participate in the CardRunners league this year.  These are the kind of theoretical discussions that I love to have, and I feel like it’s being framed and discussed much more intelligently here than it often is among baseball bloggers.

Anyway, I thought this would be a good time to jump in, introduce myself, and give you a feeling for who I am and what my thoughts are about fantasy baseball.

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So Bill and I have a tendency to get into minor arguments over most players. Especially if some of those players are on my team, and some of those players are on his team. 

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Gimps are in first place!

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