One of the things I love about FBB is the social element to the game. Over the years I have formed many good friendships and met some pretty interesting people playing this game. And one of the great things about the DD league this year is that I have been introduced to Chris Hill. I freaking love this dude ( and not just because he gave me a free Parmalee for third in line to be closer, Aaron Crow). So far I have found Chris to be friendly, good natured, opinionated and willing to back those opinions up with sidebets and trades. The season is just 1 week old, but by my count we have made 2 trades, 3 sidebets and I have received 14 other trade offers from Chris. One of those sidebets actually involved him getting long the A’s to win the World Series. How can I not love him?
The next step in our methodology is to input the projections into our pricing model. Since Robert created the model, I will simply describe it in general terms and defer to him to share as much or as little about it as he cares to.
I think it might be helpful in the ongoing debate to start describing my methods for preparing for a FBB season.
First and foremost, I am always reading about baseball. This is easily the most crucial part of my preparation. I can’t imagine having FBB success without staying on top of the news. Year round, if it is on Fangraphs, Rotoworld, THT, ESPN or MLB TradeRumors, it is a safe bet to say that I have read it. I also scour a collection of blogs devoted to specific teams, such as the ussmariner.com or letsgotribe.com. These local blogs are well done and often have unique insights into their teams.
In the month leading up to the auction, I start making player projections. I liken this task to being a sports handicapper. It is my job to find the expected mean for each player and set a line around that number. If done right, this means that if I have projected Joe Mauer to hit 24 home runs, I shouldn’t mind betting over 22 or under 26.
A little while back, I made some remarks to the effect that:
1) Universally, the game of FBB is not played very well
2) A quantitative approach, coupled a healthy dose of game theory, could dramatically elevate the level of play
3) Anyone who is not approaching the game from a quantitative perspective is placing themselves at a competitive disadvantage
This is hardly earthshaking stuff, and I never suspected that I was saying anything controversial. But not so fast. Here comes Chris Liss’ take on the subject:
"Now that we know who you are… I know who I am. I'm not a mistake! It all makes sense. In a comic, you know how you can tell who the arch-villain's going to be? He's the exact opposite of the hero, and most time's they're friends, like you and me."
- Elijah Price, Mr. Glass in the movie Unbreakable
While scouting my opponents, I came upon this article by Chris Liss .
This innocuous article created such a strong reaction within me that the first time I ever met Chris, I felt compelled to start chewing his ear off about it. Not finished, the second time I saw him , I picked up right where I had left off. The poor guy, that time I had him trapped over a steak dinner.
There is no doubt that Cardrunner has assembled an impressive field for its inaugural season. Just look at these guys.
Joe Sheehan is a legend. His work with Baseball Prospectus opened up the world of baseball analysis and changed how people thought about the game. He is partnering with Jeff Erickson, who founded Rotowire.com. This is the site with the most comprehensive collection of fantasy information there is. That is quite a 1-2 punch.
When I heard that Derek Carty was going to be in the league, I googled around to find out what I could about him. It turns out that Derek has a dazzling fantasy baseball record, and when I stumbled upon some of the articles he writes for The Hardball Times, they were so smart they scared the living crap out of me.