With my series on closers wrapping for the year last time out, today Eric has asked me to explain the logic behind drafting some of the players I selected back in March.  While I’ve had the good fortune of putting myself in the championship race (I’m currently in first by a point), my road to the title has been a bit of an unorthodox one.  Looking back at my post-draft day roster, Eric said that “it sure doesn’t look like a champion.”  That’s because I had some pretty spectacular misses, such as Dan Johnson ($10), Travis Snider ($15), Kevin Kouzmanoff ($9), Matt Thornton ($12), and Frank Francisco ($13).  Counterbalancing this, however, were some big hits in Curtis Granderson, Alex Gordon, Mark Reynolds, Mike Napoli, and Michael Pineda.

Over the next couple of posts, I’ll explain why I targeted my money players on draft day.  For each player, I've listed two dollar figures.  The first is what I paid for him at auction.  The second is what former CardRunners participant Bill Phipps's pricing model says the player has been worth this season.
 

Mark Reynolds | BAL | 3B | $19 | $26
Mark Reynolds is the type of player I always seem to be drawn to in fantasy leagues—CardRunners in particular—and which Eric always seems to hassle me about.  The high power, low average hitter is what’s driven my offense to a large extent this year, and Reynolds is the embodiment of that concept.  It wasn’t just this general tendency that drew me to Reynolds, however.  Reynolds I targeted specifically, actually having him down for $26.  The big reason for this is the power; I expected Reynolds to eclipse 40 HR and 100 RBI.  You see, Reynolds was moving from Chase Field to Camden Yards this year.  While most didn’t think twice about this change of venue, what far too few people realize is that Chase Field is not the home run hitter’s park that it’s made out to be.  In fact, for righties like Reynolds, I had it down as a park that suppresses homers by 5%.  Camden Yards, on the other hand, boosts them by close to 20%.  That’s a 25% swing in power for a guy who was just one season removed from a 44 home run campaign in a park that suppresses power.

Needless to say, the pick has worked out, though not quite as well as expected.  Reynolds started the season slow—perhaps random variation, perhaps an adjustment period—but is still pacing 37 home runs.  Ignore April, and he’s pacing 42.  Right in line with my expectations, especially since offense as a whole is down this year.  Unfortunately, he’s only pacing 88 RBI, which is a bit hard to believe given that he’ll likely hit 40 home runs.  The Orioles have sucked, and he’s had some bad luck with the timing of his homers—60% have come with the bases empty.

You could also make a case that he’s been a bit unlucky in terms of batting average, but the power was the main draw, and that panned out.  Still, according to Bill’s model, Reynolds has been worth $26—easily worth my $19 investment.
 

Mike Napoli | TEX | C | $20 | $25
Napoli was an easy call, and I owned him everywhere I possibly could, in large part because no one else seemed to think he would be this good.  Erick Mack of SI openly lambasted my love of Napoli via Twitter at the end of March: “@THTFantasy your tout wars entrant… paid $20 for Mike Napoli.” He then went on to say how much shrewder his Jorge Posada pick was. I e-mailed him to see if he wanted to make a friendly wager on the two catchers, but I received no response.

So why did I like him?  Napoli was traded to the Rangers this past off-season, but he isn’t a case like Reynolds where the change of environment figured to have a big impact (Texas, like Arizona, has a greater reputation for homers than it deserves).  Still, away from Mike Scioscia and his inability to comprehend that Napoli’s offense more than offsets the cost of his defensive shortcomings—especially when the alternative is the no bat, merely above average defense Jeff Mathis—I figured he’d be given plenty of playing time and would thrive.  After all, the Rangers are a smart organization and went out of their way to trade for Napoli.  Despite this, however, Napoli received little playing time to start the year.  Thankfully, he absolutely demolished the opposition in what time he did get, and has now finally begun to play every day since he’s essentially been the team’s best hitter. 

The .302 batting average has come out of nowhere, thanks in large part to a dramatically improved strikeout rate, but the 24 home runs thus far were easily projected.  He’d hit 20+ for the past three years, all in part-time play, so I figured with 600 plate appearances, 30-35 home runs was an easy bet.  Napoli won’t come anywhere close to 600 plate appearances thanks to the early season boneheadedness of Ron Washington, but he will still approach 30 home runs.  As a catcher, that’s easily worth the $20 I paid for him.  Bill’s model has him down for $24.5, which will likely improve a bit since his rate of playing time over the rest of the month will be greater than it’s been for the season thus far.

On Monday, I'll look at my two most profitable hitting buys: Curtis Granderson and Alex Gordon.

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