TradeBashers.Com Featured Trade
June 19th, 2011 by Eric Kesselman in UncategorizedThis year I was invited to join an experts' league at Tradebasher's.com. Tradebasher's offers a unique fantasy service, they essentially crowdsource trade proposals. So next time you get in a dispute with another owner over how fair (or horrid) their trade proposal is, put it up for voting on Tradebashers.
In partnership with Tradebashers, Cardrunners will be sponsoring their Featured Trade of the week.
Our trade will be an offer I sent to Paul/Jason just yesterday:
I offered Derek Jeter and Brian Roberts for Travis Hafner and Jhonny Peralta.
(For Tradebashers folk, our league is 12 teams AL only 5×5 Scoring)
I felt Jeter was slightly over Peralta (present performances nothwithstanding), and that Roberts was clearly over Hafner, even if he was out until the all-star break. I also felt my guys offered significantly more upside, and I only made the offer as it seemed a good time to explore punting steals.
I was a bit surprised to be (politely) told the offer was absurd.
Head over to Tradebashers.com to check out the voting! The featured trade will be in orange
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Absurd seems a bit mild. You really expect a team with 22 hitting points to ship two performing bats for Jeter and Mr Roberts? You are going to have to lay those two gentlemen off one at a time, and good luck with that.
Oh, they're 'performing' and that has apparently doubled their auction values. Don't you think you sold your Joyce a little light then? The only way Hafner rates over Roberts is if Roberts fails to return. I can see Peralta over Jeter, but there is just no way it isn't close.
This is a really tednemrous article and I thank you that you have written in such a great way that even I could understand it. Keep up such good writing and you’ll get a lot more readers in the future for sure.
A) I sold Joyce light. I paid the penalty for overbidding for Endy. Plus Joyce was 6 for his last 41. I sold Willingham lighter- technically you owe me a Romero.
B) You fluctuate between market values and auction values like a moth trapped between two bug lights. if you are really going to sell Jeter or Roberts, its time to admit you are selling low. I am not sure that Peralta or Hafner have changed value, but I am dead certain Jeter and Roberts have.
The Thome move to the Tribe is a joke. The White Sox let him go past them because they don’t have a DH spot with Konerko. So that lavees their current first baseman on the bag, which is unbelievable. Tough to take that seriously, let alone letting him go to the Tribe as opposed to blocking that.You can’t assume this move if you’re running the Tribe, but they are going nowhere. They play Detroit 6 more times, so you have to assume they have a chance, but I’ll risk looking foolish and say they aren’t catching them. So JT goes home, and doesn’t make the playoffs, let alone compete for a ring. He’ll do some valuble things there that will have long term effects, no denying that, but in essence, it’s a waste of time.I’ve had my eyes on Hidecki Matsui for a while, particularly as the days wind down, and what contract he does have left wanes.
I'm selling lower than I had them, but not lower than what I think they're worth? I think Jeter $17 and Roberts at least $8 is fair. Certainly if I got them today for $13 and $5 I'd be insanely happy with those purchases.
What are Peralta and Hafner worth? Seems like the consensus opinion is Peralta is close to a $20 player, and Hafner is $10ish. I think that's where they'd need to be for my offer to be absurd, and I know I'd rather have $17 Jeter and $8 roberts before I had those other two for $30.
Just my .02…
As I said to Paul yesterday, have we learned nothing from Bay, Morneau, and Hill? Regardless of team-mentioned "timetables", Roberts was still not symptom-free as of this weekend. Why would we want to trade for him when his future is very much cloudy, much like his head. To say Roberts "clearly" has more value than Hafner going forward is being wildly optimistic that Roberts will be able to consistently play and produce as normal going forward and get over his concussion issues. I wouldn't give up much of anything for him right now, especially when we add last year's major back problems on top of it (because players with bad backs always stay healthy when they come back.)
Again, just my .02 because you seem very puzzled as to why we dismissed the offer quickly.
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I admit I'm flopping a bit disingenuously between arguing Roberts trades over Hafner and that an active Roberts trades over Hafner. I strongly believe the second argument. The first I think is pretty reasonable, but I can certainly see the other side.
I agree head injuries have been very sketchy of late, but I have to think we're placing too much on recent events. Has no one ever come back from a concussion before effectively? If its so routinely devastating why did they feel the need to enact a special 7 day DL for it instead of a special '90 day probably never coming back the same' DL?
Certainly there are other players who have come back from serious injuries (Ellsbury, Colon, Bedard off the top of my head). I am not convinced the head one is so clearly special that we should discount players close to zero instead of a very reasonable 50% of their healthy value.
I can see saying no to my offer. I can't see thinking ti absurd.
Also, and this is a point I've been arguing with Chris- I think there is a very different value of volatiltiy based on your position in the standings. I suspect you're a bit too certain Roberts is dead, rather than treating him as a highly volatile property. I think at $5 the risk/reward is just too high to ignore him.
Anyway it's moot. I just traded Roberts and Jeter both!
I don’t follow the NFL very closely at all (and would tend to think they play through concussions more so than in other sports due to job competition) so I’ll turn to the NHL for other head cases. Crosby, savard, lindros and many other players have lost their careers or had their seasons ended due to concussions in the past years. Maybe it’s the copious amounts of money involved in player contracts that makes it too risky for doctors/teams to clear players (at the risk of a lawsuit) or it’s just plain really dangerous but I think the days of shaking off the cobwebs and getting back out there are long gone.
Hafner easy over Roberts…..hannahan too for that matter!…maybe
So the results are in and close more than 80 votes later 70% of voters would prefer to receive Peralta and Hafner. Obviously that number isn't meant to be conclusive but it does give a sense of the feeling of the crowd on this particular trade. While that may seem lopsided I don't think that's actually true. Even if you poker players would salivate at getting it in with 70% equity the fact that 30% voted for the minority means that the market thought this trade was at least in the "reasonable" category (I usually think of anything closer than 80/20 as being at least worth consideration.)
In the end this offer might fall into the category of one wherein both parties slight preference for his side made it seem eminently even to one side and eminently lopsided to the other while in reality it was more in the "lopsided but still reasonable category," at least, according to the market.
I don't know….seems more likely the 30% is just smarter than the rest of the populace
Anyway Roberts looks really dead now. Glad I dumped his useless butt!
So what you're saying is I was right about Roberts.
Well, no.
I'll admit the results match your claim, but that'd be a pretty results oriented analysis of the question. Like you calling 'heads' on a coin flip, and then claiming to be 'right' when you won. Or more accurately, saying you got all in at 33% and then claiming it was a good play after because you got there on the river
How bout Travis Snider? He seems poised to make a concussion return, no problem.
I really don't think either of those analogies match up, but it's a moot point at this juncture.
This really sucks for the Phillies, eaepcislly since we are sorely lacking a legitmate pinch-hitting power threat as it is Cliff Lee is probably a better pinch hit threat than any of our bench guys, which is both hilarious and sad at the same time. Could you imagine if the Phillies had traded for Dan Haren last year in addition to signing Cliff Lee? The team would have been in the hilarious position of having their 2 best pinch hitting options as pitchers!
Too many compmlenits too little space, thanks!
Sounds about right to me. Roberts was still showing symptoms weeks after the initial injury when you made the offer. I didn't say there was absolutely no chance that he was coming back. But the chances were really high. A coin flip? Sure.
And there's no way I was trading two healthy, productive players for a guy who was a coin flip to give me any production the rest of the year. Especially when that guy would have to be back soon and perform at full capacity almost immediately to make it anything resembling a fair trade.
Bah, I was just warming up my arguments….
Yeah, I do get being terrified of Roberts. Especially with your team suddenly performing reasonablly.
Although I'm not sure I would call Hafner productive and healthy, especially with interleague play coming up.
Mostly I was surprised the trade was SO off for you guys, I thought it should be close.
I still maintain Jeter > Peralta!
Jeter >> Peralta.