My thoughts on the draft
March 28th, 2011 by Eric Kesselman in UncategorizedBaseball is finally here again after another interminable winter absence, and I am very relieved. I barely made it through this offseason by joining Rany Jazayerli's stratomatic league and by playing a lot of simdynasty.com (great site, check it out!).
Anyway, I've been holding off saying anything about the auction until my other AL only league had drafted, but now I can let it rip.
I'm going to go team by team with my thoughts, and give myself every opportunity to put my foot in my mouth. Overall I thought without question it was the toughest auction I've ever been in. The number of times I was mentally rubbing my hands with glee as the bidding went to levels I thought were insane were extremely few and far between. Anyway here we go, my opinions for whatever they're worth-
DEREK:
Derek I think had a solid auction. We differ wildly on valuation, and it sometimes seems to me that he weights batting average as a negative. His rosters invariably are filled with Mark Reynolds types, and he generally feels he bought them cheap by $5 or more. This roster is no different, but I think most of his good buys are his two closers Francisco $13 and Thornton $12. Thornton was named closer after the auction, and I could easily see an $8 win there. I like Jason Donald at $1 and Jeff Mathis at $2. Both seem like you pay for what you get at worst, and have some chance at an upside. Snider at $15 likewise seems likely to me to turn in a range of seasons from $13 to $24. Good buy. I think Alex Gordon at $15 is too much by a lot, although I do have a strange feeling it might pay off. Regardless, I don't like paying for it upfront. I think an $8 Pineda was insane. He's one of the hot guys going around drafts this year (he went $7 in tout Mixed league!) and I don't see it at all. He's a super talented young pitcher. There is no shot he wins a lot of games on that team. At the time Derek bought him, he wasn't even in the rotation. Even if he is good, I think they'll watch his innings carefully. He is obviously not without upside, but I think its about as low reward/high risk a buy as you can get for $8. I'm not convinced by Colby Lewis either, he's at least one more season from me paying anywhere near the $17 mark. I look at the other pitchers in the league who went in the $15-$18 range and I think I'd take every single one over Lewis.
ME:
Generally happy with the way things went. From what I had seen from mock drafts, I thought there was a class of valuable player coming off of down or injured years who were going way to cheap. My plan was to scoop up all these guys, the Magglio Ordonez, Manny, James Shields, Bedard, Burnett, Beckett types. Unfortunately, there was no real discount there when it came time to auction, particularly on the hitters. I was pretty happy with my Bedard, Burnett and Beckett prices, but couldn't really clean up the way I hoped. I was even charged $6 for my beloved Ducshererererer. Near the end of the draft, I had a few moments of panic at being stuck with money while I kept waiting for discounts that weren't appearing. I wound up having to pay full freight for Juan Rivera, and was less than thrilled to be the owner of a $7 Desmond Jennings. Sure, he might work out, but I didn't want that kind of hole to start the year, and I really don't want that much variance from that spot. So I have some concerns on offense, with a couple of holes, and a bit too much speed, and a bit too much volatility from my offense, but I *love* my pitching staff. The general consensus seems to be that I'm insane there, so we will see. And other than my holes, I think my offense is pretty killer.
Jason Grey/Paul Jones:
I like their auction a lot. They've already taken a few blows with demotions to Saunders and Outman, and Borbon looking shaky. Solid pitching and solid hitting otherwise. Some serious thumpers and a few top pitchers, with filler mixed in that won't hurt and could get lucky. Very nice draft in my opinion.
Peter:
He might have done the most gambling in the auction, and I think I dislike some of the pieces. Viciedo $1 was cheap but I don't see any upside for ABs. Rhymes was a big hit at $1, and I liked Reimold at $1 and Sweeney at $2. Sizemore at $14 is a lot of volatility. I don't really like it, because even if he returns to form, I can't imagine he runs the way he did or plays anywhere near as regualrly. Lowrie at $6 might work out, as might Gregg at $8 but I can't say im wild about either. Farnsworth at $6 seems like a huge stretch. I really hate Conger at $3. I just don't see how if they booted Mike Napoli out of town for his defense how this guy has a shot at playing time anytime soon. All in all seems like too much gamble, and even if he hits a few of them I think his team will be left with too many holes for too long. Also hitting gambles on relievers is nice, but relievers are always the hardest commodity to move.
Larry:
I generally like his draft, as his offense seems very solid, and his pitching might be a bit thin, but probably won't be the kind of guys who will hurt him much (especially once he benches Bruce chen). He had a few holes, but quickly shored one up by snaring Chris Getz, who I thought was one of the better buys in the auction. I'm a bit worried about this team.
Shawn:
Similar to Peter, I think Shawn did a lot of gambling, and I don't like many of his spots. I know he's got quite the record of 'duh, winning' to quote the bard, but I'm very curious to see how this team plays out. It seems to me that Felipe Lopez, Trout, Connor Jackson, Ackley, and Adam Moore is just a lot of holes for an offense, even if some pan out ok eventually. I don't like Edwin Jackson much at $9, and I think Slowey at $9 was insane. His job was unclear at the time, and even if he got a job, or got traded to another team, I don't think Slowey is a $9 buy. Wieters for $18 also seems too dependent on a break out. Curt Suzuki went for $15. Napoli went $20. I like a lot of his other buys like the $2 Ackley, Joba, Tillman. Sale was an interesting gamble at $6.
Andrew/Brian:
I generally like where these guys did their gambling. $6 Inge, $2 chris davis, $3 mccarthy, $1 Pie, $3 Lorenzo Cain, $3 Getz, $3 Sizemore. Even $1 Varitek and Kazmir. Thats a lot of low cost guys with real upside. I think they did real well, though I think their gifting of Chris Getz to Larry for Scott Downs was a big blunder. Maybe Downs will win the closer job, but I think they might be a little thin on offense in the meantime. All in all, if they can keep the roster together I think this is a real tough team and they might have the best risk/reward buys in the auction.
Clark:
This team terrifies me. I think he had a really strong draft, and has only made his team stronger with trades so far. I'm calling bullshit on $23 for Max Scherzer, who I know is another darling of auctions this year. I think you're all insane. Blah blah blah, potential. Blah blah blah, second half numbers. Jered Weaver went for $2 more. Call me crazy, but I need a pitcher to put together a bit more consistent resume before I fire out $23 and hope to make a profit on it. I really hope I'm right, because otherwise this team is my pick for the cream of the league right now.
Chris/Nick:
I generally like everything they did, barring a player or two where we have strong differences of opinion. It's a nice well rounded team, with lots of spots for good upside. I'm not wild about the $5 Thome solely because I don't see how he gets anywhere near consistent ABs. $24 for Morneau is certainly plausible, but I'm just terrified of him. Guy has been concussed for 9 freaking months. You have to figure theres at least a 15% chance he's just never the same right? I love his $3 Moustakas, and sadly so does Chris. All my attempts to pry him loose have failed. I understand all the arguments for paying $14 for Jon Lackey, and I made them myself last year. All I can say is I watched a lot of his games, and that was not easy to stomache. One of Chris or I will definitely be saying 'I told you so' to the other come the end of the season.
Scott:
I like what he did, but he bought a lot of big guys. His first four roster spots are Mauer $26, Vmart $26, M. Cabrera $34, and Pedroia $29. Left him a bit thin, and to cover holes he had to break some guys up. Hard to do that and dictate terms at the same time. Too many people have holes, and extra players should trade for a premium.
Dalton:
Big fan of this team. We share similar feelings on players I think, and he just got good prices on almost all of them. Nothing truly larcenous perhaps, but I like just about every buy.
Trevor/Jaime:
I think this was a really solid draft with 3 blunders. I cannot fathom the $12 Montero (Cervelli wasn't hurt at the time either). I just don't see how Russell Martin isn't the Yankee catcher to bet on this year. I'm not convinced Kendrys Morales is worth $26 when healthy, and even as early as we drafted, the reports of lingering foot issues should have been a concern. I'm not sure why the Angels seem to be more deceptive in releasing information than the Pentagon, but Morales was not clearly 100%. While this situation may have turned out far worse now han was likely, I think it should've knocked him down to the $22 range or lower. Lastly I'm going to call bullshit on Morrow at $15. Sure he could be great, but I think at best his distrubution looks like a lot of $12 to $18 seasons. I don't see a $15 bet on him as having much positive expectation.
And that's my view to start the season! If anyone has any thoughts they'd like to share, or just general trash talking of my team, shoot!
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Interesting you say that about Colby Lewis. I feel very differently, owning him in every league possible this year (CR, Tout Wars, Yahoo! F&F), just as I did last year. It's not as if he's a one year wonder here. He played in Japan too where he was absolutely fantastic. THT's Oliver system saw his Japanese MLE ERAs as under 3.00 in 2008 and 2009. Plus he has very good stuff with 4 good pitches and was terrific last year.
He was the sixth pitcher on my draft board, and I'd easily take him over anyone who went in the $15 area and many who went higher than he did. I had him valued over $20.
As for Pineda, maybe he's one of the hot guys now, but this draft occured before any of the others. I really like him, and the M's just announced that he has won a spot in the rotation. At the time he hadn't, but I think this just makes him more valuable. I didn't think I got a bargain on him at that time (about even value), but I had him down for only 120 innings. Just because a guy isn't starting the year in the majors doesn't mean he can't be worth $8. If he would have gotten called up in May, he easily could have been with a 4.00 ERA and 1.28 WHIP. Plus, I thought there was a ton of upside there, and some risks need to be taken in a league like this. I thought he was a good one. He might not win a ton of games, but the offense has improved at least a little, and there's a lot of variability with wins anyway. Again, part of the risk of the pick.
So what do you expect the standings to look like come October, Eric?
Definitely not making any standings predictions at this point.
I can certainly see the argument for Lewis, and sure I might be wrong. I'm just skeptical of the whole story. It might be true, but I don't want to pay a price that makes it have to be true. I would bet him under $18.5 in a hearbeat if you want action.
Pineda I just can't see it. I assume you've read Dave Cameron's stuff on him, where he makes at least a prima facie case that Pineda just isn't ready. Add that in to the fact he had no job, and he has no shot at winning ball games, and I just can't see the upside at $8. Feels a lot more like if you get lucky, you break even.
the yahoo auto draft will select best paeylr according to their rankings, until all starters are fillled. then it starts working on the bench. downside to this is you end up wasting valuable late picks on kickers and defenses, sometimes picking up 2 defense and 2 kickers. that s 4 picks better spent on wideouts, or RB s. another downside is you could possibly draft a QB or WR in round 1 blowing a stud RB that s more valuable.here s what one of my leagues is doing. we basically like live drafts. but of course some people have such important lives they can t spare 1 hour of their day, so during the live draft, they get best available according to yahoo s rankings. if that means a TE in round 3, too bad. you should ve been there.so select live draft, print out a sheet of yahoo rankings, and as managers select paeylrs, cross them off the sheet, and when an auto-draft yuppie comes up, just draft them the highest paeylr NOT SELECTED till they have all their starters. as for the bench, we ignore position. if they get 5 tight ends too bad.personally, I hate auto-drafts. that live draft is honestly half the fun in playing fantasy football. you re all 0-0, talking crap, making fun of draft picks, eating pizza and wings, having some beers. if u bomb out starting the season 1-3 u are probably in for a long season, at least you had fun at the live draft though! Was this answer helpful?
On a relatively trivial note, let's start with the $6 Pineda/Dousherer continuim. Pineda is moving into the AL, which has fewer pitchers parks than the PCL and where he will be asked to pitch fewer innings. His MLE's aren't horrible, and his King Felix impersonation has been sloppy but not entirely off base. Meanwhile the Dukester cannot actually walk. When in doubt, I always take the pitcher who can walk. Dave Cameron is a really nice guy, but quantiative analysis doesn't address the intangibles that determine young pitcher success. Pineda is not afraid of anybody or anything. My fearless prediction: he earns 6 bucks. The other guy, well, I make the over and under on innings 65 and I take the under.
I must admit that I have never done an auction draft before and never played anything but mixed league, so my learning/bidding curve got bent into a relatively interesting shape. On top of that, not only did I lack the informational advantage I think I can generally rely on, early bidding made clear that the only way I was the smartest guy in the room was if I worked for Enron. Player after player sold at a price that accounted for profit that I had hoped only I would see.
The reality is that there are not enough resources in a single league draft for anyone to build a complete and well rounded team. So all owners gamble. The traditional gamble was written on the walls of caves in Southern France: buy hitters and cheap pitchers and hope for Jose Lima to carry you to the promised land. Eric's team personifies this gamble. His "top" four starters perhaps should work in the Big Top jumping out of cars and squirting water at each other rather than in baseball stadiums. Well paid, under performing, really talented guys. Burnett, Beckett, Bedard and Santana. In 2006 we are all dead money. 2011, well, thats the definition of gamble in my book. But Santana is rock solid and Bedard appears to have righted the ship. Eric may be laughing at us all in September if Derek Jeter and Figgins are not over ripened on the vine of life.
Derek's gamble was a variation, in that he drafted two solid staters in Haren and Lewis (I love the Lewis pick, I agree on the $20 valuation) and gambled on Thornton (!), Francisco (ooops), Coke, Pineda and Francis. Even if he busts on three of five, the misses will be fixable. Of more concern to me is his decision to ignore both average and speed. Unless Alex Gordon morphs into Carl Crawford, he has some work to do to add steals to his roster. I had Gordon as a 12 dollar player going in to the draft and had absolutely no outfield when I bid 14 for him. I don't think Derek over paid by much, but I suspect there is no profit in that much maligned $15 bid. But if he has a six hr April, my bet is he turns into steals for Derek anyway.
I knew going in I was going to take the Morneau gamble, as I figured I'd get essentially a free $10 player discount from $30 plus he should sell for (My logic: Aaron Hill hit his homeruns last year, he just had his average tank. Morneau can tank pretty good from .340 and still not kill me in average). Unfortunately, I got bid up to 24 so the discount wasn't what I'd hoped and all my gamble players (Gordon, Borbon, Bourjos, Gordon, Kila, and Dan Johnson among others) sold for roughly twice what I had budgeted or expected. I am not where I wanted to be and ended up losing my nerve on my decision to pitch speed, as I just didn't think my team was good enough to abandon a column (well, I'd get a 2, there is always Derek's team)(hehe).
Clark started with a solid foundation and has added Trumbo for money and Miguel Cabrera for Encarncion and Kila. That let him sell Alexi R for Jered Weaver. His 1-2 of Weaver Scherzer appears a league best and Cabrera is the anchor bat he was short. Going in, you have to make him the team to beat and give him high points on both courage and acumen. His team is certainly a potential top three.
The Rotowire team is sneaky good. Other than a dominant second starter, he has pretty much everything you'd want in a draft. Dalton is pitching heavy and needs Beltre and Lee to not suck. I make Rotowire a top three team preseason.
Peter (I am asking already, Rotoman) rounds out my top three. He has two top starters (Gio at 17 and Price), decent middle tier starting pitching, enough closers in waiting to have a dinner party, and an outfield/hitting team that scores very solidly across five columns.
Rounding out my top "three" is Jason grey, mostly because he doesn't lose much. There is also Danks, Hellickson, and a monster hitting lineup featuring Bautista, Rios, Dunn and Nelson Cruz.
Fortunately, projections are not the most reliable of worldly events and games actually have to be played to determine a winner. As a group, everyone in the league drafted a team that, with just a little luck and decent management, has a shot to win. It was an amazingly solid draft. Good luck to all. Play Ball.
Good stuff. Duke is a dominant pitcher with only one question, can he stay healthy? If he even manages to pitch half a season, think I show a profit.
Pineda you have to wonder if he gets a job (he did) and how good he will be. And he cost $2 more.
Not close imo.
I do agree my Duke buy was a stretch though. $5 was supposed to be my top.
I favor Chris's analysis over Eric's, and agree with both that this was a wickedly tough auction. I like my team, because I paid for it, but will admit that there are some holes to fill. And I didn't like the Weaver for Ramirez trade. It seemed too good a match, for my taste, and helped both teams.
Now it's time to eat. Bon appetit!
My projections like Larry's team a lot. I would definitely make him one of the favorites. I hope you are wrong about Scherzer, but his spring has been awful. I don't need him to match his second half from last year, but getting his first half twice would destroy me.
I'd take you up on the $18.5 action on Lewis, for sure, Eric.
As for the Duchscherer/Pineda comparison, Duke is moving to a hitter's park and the best division in baseball. Every single team in that division will be in the top quartile offensively, and he'll have to play 43% of his games against them.
I saw Cameron's piece on Pineda, and that's the only hesitation I have with him. Otherwise, he's a guy who is a top prospect, has dominated the minors, has excellent MLEs, and was good for at least 140-150 innings *at the time of the draft* as long as he didn't bomb in the majors. But that's the skill risk associated with a rookie. At least he's shown that he has skills and is healthy. Duchscherer has only done one of those, and at that his skills likely won't translate particularly favorably this year.
Also, Chris, what's wrong with Francisco? He's going to miss a couple weeks and then be back to close.
I think you're also neglecting how fired up the rest of the troops get when Ducherererer spontaneously conbusts in mid gem. Think Matthew Broderick in Glory charging the enemy lines with just the American Flag.
Too bad Lackey can walk. That means he can pitch!
Thinking that Lackey can pitch seems overly generous at the moment. Right up there with wishing Duke could walk or that Francisco will stay healthy.
should I bench Chen yet? 14 straight scoreless IP
never leave a craps table until you are broke. that is why they call it "gambling"
This article was fun to re-visit.
Depends on your definition of “well”. It picks the best avlaiable player regardless of position. So let s say you have 1 RB and 2 QBs and the best avlaiable player was a QB, it would pick them even though you need an RB more then a 3rd QB. Sometimes it works out to your benefit, sometimes it gives you 3 TE s, 3 QB s, or 2 TDSP or 2 K.If its a league owner that takes it anybit seriously and knows anything about fantasy, I d say they d want to do their draft to give their team best chance to win. If you don t know much and don t really care, then autopick will probably work just fine for them. Was this answer helpful?