Why I Sat Superstar Hurler Ricky Romero This Week
June 3rd, 2010 by Chris Liss in UncategorizedEric thought this was a curious decision and asked me to write about it. The short answer is that it was a gut call.
The longer answer is that based on the matchups, I felt I had five choices:
Jake Westbrook: @DET, @CHI, vs. WAS
Brett Cecil vs. NYY, @TB
Daisuke Matsuzaka vs. OAK, @CLE, vs. WAS
Doug Fister vs. ANA, @TEX
Romero vs. NYY, @COL
While I wish I had the foresight to have benched the execrable Gavin Floyd, it was between the above pitchers. I also considered sitting two of them and taking a zero.
Westbrook had three starts and not terrible match-ups, so I crossed him off, though until he shows more consistent command to go along with his extreme ground ball rate, he’s always a candidate to be benched. Daisuke – same thing – three starts, decent matchups, command problems. Then there’s Fister – smoke and mirrors – or excellent, command, ballpark, defense? Maybe a little of both, but I didn’t like the @Texas game. So I traded him as part of the Brett Anderson deal. (Yes, I know he’s hurt, and yes, I am *very* bitter about that).
So it came down to the two best pitchers in the history of the league – Ricky Romero or Brett Cecil. Cecil, aside from a two-inning, eight-run outing, has been outstanding and has excellent command. But Romero is the better pitcher with the heavy ground ball rate and strikes out more than a batter per inning. Both have only two starts, and both are terrible matchups. But Romero’s are even worse because while they both face the Yankees (who destroy lefties – .863 OPS), Cecil is @TB who struggles against lefties (6.99) and who have scored more runs than their OBP and SLG would warrant, i.e., they’ve been a bit lucky. Moreover, Cecil faces Wade Davis, the Rays’ weakest starter, boosting his chances for a win – assuming he gets out of the fifth inning, of course. While Romero is @COL (.840 team OPS at home) AND squares off against Ubaldo Jimenez (at least if everyone takes his scheduled turn). That makes a win less likely.
But really it’s just a gut call. I looked up the Yanks’ splits against lefties, the Rockies’ home/road splits, the Rays’ splits against lefties, considered the standings regarding wins, Ks, ERA and WHIP, etc., and my instinct was to sit Romero. I submitted my lineup, and I even re-drafted the email with Cecil out and Romero in, but making that change didn’t feel right. Something told me to leave it alone. Maybe it’s superstition, or maybe it’s because my brain has computed the data and/or observed a pattern unbeknownst to my conscious mind. Either way, I made the call and will see what happens.
If we had one-week periods (like any sane league) I would have sat Cecil this week vs. the Yanks and then sat Romero next week @COL. But that wasn’t an option. And Cecil draws Burnett (TOR crushes righties) and Romero draws Pettitte (lefties crush Toronto), so even this week is close.
Tags: Brett Cecil, Ricky Romero
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What, you didn't check weather forecasts? So lazy.
Here's a real question- Did you shop him around before benching him? If not, why not? I was pretty livid to be stuck with Overbay on my bench this period (so far looks like the wrong call to play Kotsay over). I'd say I spent 4+ hours trying to make a deal to squeeze value out of both of them. While I understand the reasoning, Romero's value on the bench (regardless of whether the call turns out right, wrong, or indifferent) seems like a big blow to me.
While I am somewhat skeptical of what you could sell him for, as I noted before there are a lot of closely packed teams and we have an extremely flat prize structure. Seems like someone should be gambling. Just off the top of my head, If you offered Joe/Jeff Romero for an injured Beckett- does that trade? Should it?
Thanks for posting.
You're implying there's an inefficiency from having Romero on my bench. But if a player earns $20 on the year – that's a lot for a second-year AL East pitcher, then he earns $.66 per average start. Some starts will be much more, and some will be negative. @COL vs. Jimenez and vs. NYY are two of the harder starts he'll have to make. I doubt they project very positively if at all. And even if they project to a small positive amount, you have to subtract the opportunity cost of the slots, too – unless someone has a zero. So I don't see much to be gained by anyone.
That's a solid argument, but I'm not entirely sold. I think the reason is that you don't just have Romero's actual value on the bench, you have his perceived value on the bench. By way of lameo analogy: If you had a work of art that you knew to be counterfeit and of no value, but that others thought worth a reasonable sum- you should sell it, not stick it in the closet. This is true even if the work of art is only counterfeit for period 5 (yeah I said it was a lameo analogy.)
My point is that when I see a gap between perceived market value and what I think actual value is, it's one of the main factors that motivate me to start up trade talks.
And unlike your analysis, whoever is the recipient of Romero is not going to be looking so much at these next two starts. They'll be looking at romero for the rest of the season. So where you're asking, 'do i bench him this period?' they'll be asking 'Is romero for real? Should I pay $15 for him?' This helps you get a deal done.
I don't think the opportunity cost argument holds, because you get that value regardless. Let's call that slot Westbrook. He's still going in, pretty much regardless of what you do. Let's say you traded Romero and Anderson for Greinke to start the period. Or Romero and a hitter for a $15 better hitter. You don't lose the Westbrook slot.
So maybe you're right there isn't a lot of actual Romero performance value on the bench here. I do think there is substantial perceived value being incinerated here ($1 to $1.50 maybe?) . And perceived value becomes actual value, because you can trade it into actual value elsewhere.