Side bets
April 8th, 2010 by Eric Kesselman in Player Discussion, Prediction, Trash TalkSo Bill and I have a tendency to get into minor arguments over most players. Especially if some of those players are on my team, and some of those players are on his team.
We generally settle these disagreements with an array of side bets. I've done pretty well overall, having near clean sweeps of all the sidebets in 2007 and 2009, although I got nearly swept in 2008.
Here's what we've got so far (and its only a couple of days into the season):
All bets are from my perspective.
Jon Lackey, over 15 wins. 100 IP minimum, and 15 is a tie.
Marc Rzepzinsky will earn over $5 in Bill's model. Having some serious regret on this one, especially after the injury.
Miguel Cabrera will earn more than Longoria in Bill's model. I think MC is going to have a monster year, and I think the turf is going to wear on Longoria.
Anyone like my side of that last one?
Sorry, there are no polls available at the moment.Tags: bets, Bill Phipps, Eric Kesselman
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take a look at cbssportsline's projections for lackey. they have projected 2010 totals 15 wins 9 losses and for the rest of the season they now have it 15.6-8.1 with one start elapsed. does that seem odd to anyone else?
Kesselman moving the line, obv
You will notice that the going forward projections are not consistent on other players, either. I would guess that they are using a different projection system intra-year than they do preseason. the starting assumptions were likely very different.
BTW- anyone who likes eric's side, there is still time to jump in !
Works well! It is not obvious, thoguh. Will new users know to click on the yellow bubble or time stamp?Within the thread itself, perhaps you can put the same yellow bubble next to the title of the thread to keep things consistent? Maybe a yellow bubble with a down arrow?
You cannot seriously be using Sportsline's in-season projections as a basis for anything. It's probably some 22-year old intern who's job it is to keep those up so that they look plausible. Last year there were 22 starters with 15 wins or more, but only 12 with 16 or more. Lackey's in a good situation with the offense and pen, but will have to face the Yanks and Rays offenses a lot. Given his injury history, I like Bill's side there. As for Rzepcynski, I think he showed decent skills. Unless the injury costs him his job, I think he's better than even money to earn $5.
And the 22/12 numbers are for MLB, not just the American League. In the AL, the numbers were 11/9.
So what youre saying is I need to get a little lackey?
I was looking at his stats last year with sportsline and noticed that. I think Ryzerpinski should earn less than 5 bucks and would sidebet that if anyone is interested. i think i like lackey under 15 wins and i like miguel cabrera better than longoria
That's very brave now that "Rzerpinski" is hurt and may lose his job to boot.
i wasn't the one who said he is still worth over 5
Rzepczynski need not be worth 5 to be even money to earn five. He needs only to be worth 2.50. Morever, you could argue that he could be worth $1 and still be even money or better to earn five, because there's a chance he earns negative money. In fact, if you buy an SP for $1, you better think he's even money to earn $5. I think he easily is.
Before the season started, I bet a good friend of mine 5k that Joe Mauer would hit under 29.5 home runs this year. Against anyone else I would think this was a phenomenal bet and be willing to wager much more. But, my friend is a very sharp professional sports better. One of the best in the world. Did I get picked off? Should I have bet more?