My ‘Genius’ picks….
April 5th, 2010 by Eric Kesselman in Player Discussion, Prediction, Trash TalkGimps are in first place!
Yeah ok, so we're only halfway through the first full day of the season. My motto is : Always take every possible opportunity to gloat. You never know when such an opportunity may came again!
Having completed my second and last auction of the year, I thought it would be interesting to post my 'genius' picks. These are the guys who I was prepared to pay over the market value/consensus projections for. If I win, these are the guys I think my upside will likely come from. Given all the debate going on about genius v agnostic picks, I thought it'd be interesting to have people declare which are the players they expect their biggest earnings to come from. There should be little harm in disclosing at this point, since I'm not likely to want to trade anyone I'm valuing well over their market trade value anyway. I'm going to go out on a limb and say I expect this group to earn me $45 more than I paid.
My 'genius calls:
Josh Hamilton
Vernon Wells
Shaun Marcum
Justin Duchsherer
Felix Hernandez
I was extremely confident I was going to own the guys in my genius pool. That's not to say I didn't have numbers for them, but I was very confident that my numbers were well above the market's valuations. I decided to really focus on offense in my other league, but I still landed all these players except for King Felix. So I've got a lot of eggs in this basket and I feel good about it. On the flip side, the top 4 of these guys really didn't cost all that much. I've left myself room to be wrong and come up with a plan B. I feel I've given myself a strong position, while still preserving some flexibility if everything goes to hell.
If anyone else wants to get some predictions on the tape, now is the time!
Chris, I know I owe you some responses but I promised Bill I'd let him respond first. I think he's got a lengthy series of responses coming. Hopefully he isn't building a model to help craft his answers!
Tags: Bill Phipps, Chris Liss, genius, Kesselman
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If I didn't get Wieters who I had wanted, I was going to go cheap with Salty and Navarro – two post-hype guys who have another opportunity. One in a great park, the other in a great lineup. I targeted Jeter as the only reliable AL SS, and Rivera as my closer. Don't expect a big profit, but I think those are key spots relative to what's left. I had a bunch of guys in mind at the right price (Mags Ordonez, Delmon Young, Porcello, David Price, etc.). None were bargains at the time they came up. So I settled for Gavin Floyd who I like a lot. Also like Jenks. Think Romero has risk but also upside given his K and GB rates. Daisuke has upside, too. Targeted Liriano for his off the charts upside, but he could easily fall apart, too. I like Hermida as another post-hype guy. But my real strategy was to buy up a few superstars with 2/3 of my budget and wait for bargain late to fill the rest of my roster with at-bats. So I was mostly agnostic. I had a lot of targets, and took the ones I thought went at a discount except for Mo and Jeter. And I was committed to buying stars for reasonable amounts. Because I play in LABR which is 12 teams, I know what stars go for there. And they should go for more here as replacement value is higher and therefore stars are more important. They did not, so I swept them up. Had the stars gone for full value, I would have let them go. I was agnostic in a way, but had a very specific strategy, and targeted a range of players a few of whom fell to me. I was surprised that Ordonez, Beltre, Delmon Young, Porcello, Price, etc. did not. It told me the league was filled with knowledgeable owners – or Tigers fans.
Why don't you guys throw me a quantifiable bone. Let's put some numbers on these genius picks.
I projected Hamilton to have 500 ab 22 hr, 87rbi, 75 r, 7 sb, .283
Vernon Wells I have as 550 ab 19, 77 , 75, 10 .269
Eric ?
You're going to owe me some quantifiable bones at the end of this season.
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