If you look around the table and can’t see the fish………..March 27th, 2010 by Bill Phipps in Team Analysis
There is no doubt that Cardrunner has assembled an impressive field for its inaugural season. Just look at these guys.
Joe Sheehan is a legend. His work with Baseball Prospectus opened up the world of baseball analysis and changed how people thought about the game. He is partnering with Jeff Erickson, who founded Rotowire.com. This is the site with the most comprehensive collection of fantasy information there is. That is quite a 1-2 punch.
When I heard that Derek Carty was going to be in the league, I googled around to find out what I could about him. It turns out that Derek has a dazzling fantasy baseball record, and when I stumbled upon some of the articles he writes for The Hardball Times, they were so smart they scared the living crap out of me.
All 6 of these men know more about baseball then I ever will. They have played Fantasy baseball for longer, won more titles, know the player pool deeper and are better at projecting seasons than me. So, what on earth am I doing betting decent amounts of money against them? As a professional trader, I am supposed to be getting my money in good.
I am reluctant to confess this publicly, but the truth is, I actually DO think that I am getting my money in good. I would still play this league if it were a $50,000 entry fee. This might be foolish on my part, and I am hoping that it isn’t just my ego run amok. But it is based on my hypothesis that, while each of my opponents knows baseball better than I do, I know the game of fantasy baseball better than they do.
I have a Wall Street job, trading options for a major firm. Several years ago, my close friend Robert Dixon and I partnered up in a high stakes FBB league. Since then, we have been doing our best to dissect the game. Applying many of the concepts found in trading options, we have developed a player pricing model that we feel outclasses anything we have yet seen. In addition, we have a combined 30 years of professional gaming and trading experience that I think translates perfectly into Fantasy Baseball.
Is this enough to overcome the obvious pluses my opponents have over me? I think it is. My contention is that the expert community has put tremendous effort into dissecting players but has neglected much of the game theory aspect of FBB. I consider the next few months to be a great experiment where we see if I am on to something or not.
My plan is to blog regularly about the league, sharing the pricing model and any insights I feel I have about the game. I welcome all comments, questions or criticisms that anyone may have.